Wednesday, March 9, 2011 - 3:07 PM

Okay, so yesterday I explained not only that John McCain was wrong to say the iPhone is made in America (as you already knew), but also that most of you were wrong to think it is made in China. I went on to show that the phone is only assembled in China from high-tech parts that are mostly made in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. I further explained that production of these parts is not labor intensive, but capital and technology intensive.
In other words, these parts are just the kinds of products American economists, Silicon Valley venture capitalists and entrepreneurs, and Washington political leaders always say America is the best in the world at making. (That's probably why McCain just automatically said without thinking that the iPhone is made in America -- he couldn't imagine it being made anywhere else). Then I left you with the question of why, if America is so good at making this stuff, it doesn't.
All right, I know you've had a sleepless night over this, so I'll relieve the suspense.
Here's the answer -- or perhaps I should say, answers:
The first is economies of scale. Take two economies, say the United States and the E.U. Take a product, say airplanes and especially commercial airliners. During World War II, the Germans, Japanese, British, and Americans all made very good airplanes. Europe was competitive with the United States in its ability to make airplanes. After the war, both the Europeans and the Americans had all the technology, resources, and skills requisite for aircraft production. And, indeed, it was Britain that actually produced the first commercial jetliner. Yet, it was the American companies -- Boeing, Lockheed, and Douglas -- that emerged in the post war period as the globally dominant aircraft makers, especially of commercial jetliners. This was because, as part of the post-war occupation policies, Germany and Japan were forbidden to produce aircraft. While the French and British faced no such prohibition, their national markets for jetliners were relatively small compared to the U.S. market. Aircraft production is an industry with enormous economies of scale.
If you build only one plane, the cost for that one plane is prohibitive. But if you build a thousand of the same model, the cost per plane falls dramatically because high fixed costs can be amortized over a large number of planes produced. With a big home-market advantage, U.S. producers were able quickly to reduce their costs far below the level of the British and French. Once that happened, the British and French producers could not sell at a profit to anyone and could not survive without major subsidies from their governments.
Of course, the E.U. governments decided to engage in what economists call "picking winners and losers" by heavily subsidizing Airbus to make it a viable competitor with the U.S. producers. Their policy eventually paid off and today, Airbus is the world's leading commercial aircraft maker. But it took great policy determination over a long time and hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies to achieve.
The second answer is U.S. geopolitical and international economic policy doctrine. Since the end of World War II, America's highest priorities have been to assure access to military bases around the globe, to conclude and maintain alliances, and to engage in military intervention to assure a global balance of power deemed favorable to U.S. interests. To this end, Washington has continually been prepared to make economic concessions in order to obtain geo-political objectives. Thus, for example, Washington effectively responded to the Airbus subsidies for fear that doing so might upset NATO arrangements.
This geopolitical priority has long been rationalized and justified by an international economic policy that held free trade to be always and everywhere a win-win proposition. Indeed, it was believed that unilateral free trade (keeping one's markets open, even in the face of protectionism by one's trading partners) was a winning proposition. Thus, there was no need to be concerned about things like subsidization of key foreign industries or loss of capability in these fields, and hence no need for trade measures that might upset delicate geopolitical relationships.
This economic doctrine has been based upon the assumption of Anglo/American economics that economies of scale either don't exist in most traded products and industries or are relatively unimportant. That this assumption is dramatically and demonstrably wrong and not accepted by most of the non-Anglo world has not deterred its application to the making of much American and global trade policy.
A corollary of the free-trade doctrine was also the doctrine that governments cannot and should not "pick winners and losers" by favoring some industries with protection and subsidization.
The third answer is that the rise to dominance of the theory of Shareholder Value (the sole duty of the CEO is to increase relatively short-term returns to shareholders) in U.S. business schools. Beginning in the 1970s, business leaders promoted the off-shoring of production by American CEOs who aimed to increase returns by arbitraging labor costs between Asia and America.
In the 1960s and early 1970s, the U.S. consumer electronics industry was the world leader in virtually every dimension. But first Japan, and then the Asian Tigers, and then China were determined to catch up. Far from believing that governments should not "pick winners" by subsidizing and protecting them, they saw that most of the major industries like steel, shipbuilding, aircraft, and electronics were characterized by economies of scale and that they had no chance of being in these industries except by dint of subsidies and protection. Governments, they believed, had an absolute duty to achieve rapid economic growth precisely by picking these kinds of industries to be winners.
Thus, Japan kept its yen undervalued (just as China is today keeping its yuan undervalued), provided preferential financing to consumer electronics producers, subsidized their exports, encouraged them to dump (sell abroad at prices below cost and/or below the prices at home) fiercely protected its domestic markets, and forced foreign producers to transfer technology to Japan as a condition of obtaining market access. The objective was to achieve high rates of production in order to obtain the economies of scale necessary to match the costs of American producers.
At the same time, the U.S. government, not wishing to upset the U.S.-Japan alliance with nasty trade issues and seeing no need to do so because it believed that trade is always win-win, took no action to counter the dumping, currency undervaluation, intellectual property theft, and subsidization of "winner" industries by Japan.
Also at the same time, U.S. CEOs at companies like RCA, Motorla, Zenith, and Ampex began to outsource the production of their television, radio, and VCR components to Japan while they kept the design, marketing, and distribution functions at home. By the mid-1980s there were virtually no U.S. consumer electronics producers left. The display technology for televisions, electronic watches, and video tape recorders had been taken over by Japan as had also much of the semiconductor production along with production of timers, lenses, and other key components.
In the past 25 years, the governments of Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and other Asian countries have sought to wrest dominance in these and other key industries away from Japan by imitating its mercantilist, strategic export led growth strategies and its "picking of winners." Thus Korea heavily subsidized and protected companies like Samsung, Hynix, and LG while Taiwan actually founded Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, now the second or third largest semiconductor producer in the world.
All of these players managed to achieve large scale production such that, even if a U.S. company like Apple had the requisite technology and resources, it could not hope to compete economically with the giant industry leaders. To do so would require that the U.S. government heavily subsidize and protect U.S. based production, a step that would require a revolution in American policy thinking and that may well no longer be affordable even if it were feasible.
That's why America doesn't produce iPhones or much of the other stuff it keeps saying it's good at. Maybe it could be good and maybe it should be good. But you know how that "coulda, shoulda, woulda thing goes.
What about American buying power?
When I got my first apartment in 1996, I first bought a bed, a dining table, and 2 chairs. That was all I had upon moving in. I saved up some money, and bought a futon and a cheap coffee table and end tables. A few more months after that, using a birthday check from my parents, I bought my first television, a 22-in Panasonic that I still have.
Flash forward to 10 years later, and I am helping my sister move into her first apartment. Maybe it was because she was the baby girl in the family, but we bought everything for her upon moving in. The cost of a TV, DVD player, furniture, kitchenware, even a dining set were far lower than what they were ten years ago.
But, would any of this stuff have been as affordable if it were made in the U.S.? This is what made me uneasy. I was glad that I was able to get my sister all set up in hew new home. But with the exception of the IKEA furniture, everything else was made in China. Granted, the stores selling us these goods were happy to get our business, and overseas production allows these vendors to offer greater variety and lower prices. But has there ever been a case of where a country simply consumed its way to prosperity?
Yes, America still produces top flight doctors, engineers, show business types. But for more ordinary folk, what options will be left for them?
I don't think you quite made the case that "Economies of Scale" explain why Apple sources so many of its components outside the US - there is no denying the scale but why should this prohibit the USA from making them? Unless you suggest that its manufacturing abilities have so atrophied as to render it a pygmy by comparison to, say, Taiwan? Then, frankly, you might have an argument.
Again, your assertion that a diversion of Government attention has caused home-manufacturing to wither and allowed US corporations to take advantage of cheap overseas labor doesn't altogether hold in my opinion. You can't apply this to the US auto industry in its competition with Japan - where wages plus benefits actually exceed those in the US (not to mention the huge shipping cost burden). The issue there is plainly that US can't match Japanese quality, which itself is derived from dedication and discipline from top to bottom of their companies - the root of the matter.
And your third reason seems to be a composite of the above two - you cite a lot of symptoms but neglect the specific cause which, as I maintained in my response to your fine opening article yesterday, is a sociological one!
Today's Western workforces lack discipline, energy and work ethic (I include in this the contribution of unions, which you don't even mention) and THAT is a huge part of why Manufacturing has gone offshore!
If anybody is interested to know exactly why I think this has happened, I'll start writing my book!
Indeed, it was believed that unilateral free trade (keeping one's markets open, even in the face of protectionism by one's trading partners) was a winning proposition.
From an economic stand-point, it is. If, for example, China heavily subsidizes their steel industry and supplies everyone with significantly cheaper steel, then the customers who buy that steel are effectively getting a bigger rise in living standards at the expense of Chinese taxpayers.
The complication only arises when you think that certain industries are "vital" to national sovereignty/strength, and so forth. For example, it might be cheaper to buy that subsidized steel, but the political leadership in the US decides that being able to produce steel in the US is important in case we end up in a major war.
I'd also add that subsidies/state action only go so far. What ultimately makes these areas profitable (and makes the Japanese/Chinese/Korean export sectors profitable) is that customers in the US and elsewhere like their products enough to buy them.
Thus, Japan kept its yen undervalued (just as China is today keeping its yuan undervalued), provided preferential financing to consumer electronics producers, subsidized their exports, encouraged them to dump (sell abroad at prices below cost and/or below the prices at home) fiercely protected its domestic markets, and forced foreign producers to transfer technology to Japan as a condition of obtaining market access.
I wouldn't over-rate state action (AKA MITI) in Japan in terms of its economic success. MITI, for example, had a remarkably high number of failures, and even many of its successes were likely due to other factors. Success in automobile sales largely happened because the Japanese filled a niche/new market that wasn't being met by the US domestic producers, and success in the electronics area happened because they took advantage of a new wave of technology with regards to production that US producers were not fully utilizing.
This is particularly the case with regards to steel, where the Koreans and others took advantage of new production technology that domestic steel producers had turned down.
Thus, for example, Washington effectively responded to the Airbus subsidies for fear that doing so might upset NATO arrangements.
I wouldn't over-state this. Domestic aircraft manufacturers in the US have been readily willing to use state action and political pressure against Airbus, and there have been WTO suits against them as well.
Moreover, the US has quite often acted to protect certain well-connected industries in the US when threatened by foreign trade. Automobiles are the biggest example, where they imposed a number of tariffs and other rules designed to force foreign car manufacturers into weaker positions compared to domestic manufacturers (which had the side-effect of causing those exporters to build plants and other infrastructure in the US to get around trade barriers).
Interesting reading. Isn't a government constitutionally obliged to do all it can to prevent the destruction of the nation by external forces - even if it's creative destruction by the global market [a la Schumpeter]? In theory this puts governments at odds with global capital.
An audit of the taxpayer bail-outs around the world would make interesting reading.
You forgot the most important factor
Dear Mr Prestowitz.
Thanks for a really interesting article. However, I think you forgot a very important factor which could explain why US aircraft manufacturers become so dominant so quickly after WWII
Protectionism. No US airline would have purchased European airplanes at the time. That was simply out of the question. We see the final throws of this policy now after the USAF tanker aircraft tender was redone to give the "right" result.
Regards,
K. Myrhagen, Switzerland
US spending on weapons also took the form of a pretty massive subsidy, particular for cost+ projects, and since the companies selected for defence contracts are as often as not selected for political reasons, the US did "pick winners and losers" in apportioning these contracts.
And yes, the US has blocked American airlines from purchasing foreign aircraft. As an example, Concorde was banned from even landing in the US by an act of Congress, and when this ban was overturned by the US Supreme Court, New York and other cities imposed local bans. Orders for Concorde of over 90 aircraft from Pan Am and other US airlines were also reportedly shelved after pressure from the US government. US orders for the Comet (the world's first jet airliner) befell a similar fate in the 50's and 60's.
Really, there seems to be an urge among certain US economists to portray the US as some paragon of free-market virtue, when in truth it has simply played a very similar politico-economic game to the rest of the world.
Finally, as a former employee at the Foxconn factory where the iPhone is assembled, I have to ask whether the author really believes that it would be possible for a similar 500,000-strong facility to be constructed in the United States? I do not think so - only in country with cheap labour and lax zoning laws could such a place be built.
Firebombing and Mushroom Clouds
And let's not forget that much of the key manufacturing base of the developed world was - literally - in rubble at the close of the Second World War.
In order to compete you need the means - the physical means - to compete.
So... you're appointed Supreme Dictator...
So, Mr. Prestowitz... what's your prescription to cure America's ills?
I concur with your analysis.
(And obviously all intelligent, knowledgeable readers understand that John S. McCain is... um... none too bright - and none too knowledgeable.)
So what's the answer?
Tariffs?
Industrial policy?
Frankly I'd be far more comfortable with the former than the latter, but I'd like to hear your solution.
Me...???
I've been reading Pat Buchanan's writings, Lou Dobb's writings, Ron Paul's writings... et al... for decades now. I'm certainly sold on what the problem is. The question... what's the solution?
"An audit of the taxpayer bail-outs around the world would make interesting reading."
US congressman Ron Paul, an avid constitutionalist, wants to see this too: Link
However an audit is getting closer. After long campaigning for a check on US public finances, Dr Paul was recently appointed chairman of the sub-committee that oversees the Federal Reserve.
Clyde Prestowitz is the president of the Economic Strategy Institute and writes on the global economy for FP.
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