Tuesday, June 7, 2011 - 5:51 PM

Henry the K was at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace yesterday using the occasion of the publication of his latest book, the portentously titled On China, to take another, perhaps a final, victory lapfor his work in carrying out President Richard Nixon's strategy of achieving a diplomatic opening to China.
This negotiation that brought about the normalization of long-frozen relations between the United States and China and that led eventually to the modernization and recent prodigious rise of China has always been the centerpiece of Kissinger's career, the main peg on which will hang the judgment of history about him. For this reason, Kissinger, ever mindful that it is not only the winners who write history but also the writers who win history or at least historical renown, has written and spoken a great deal about the event, carefully burnishing his reputation as a statesman of the first rank on a par with such as Metternich and Bismarck. Now it is certainly the case that in reputation he appears to stand head and shoulders above other U.S. secretaries of state since George Marshall and Dean Acheson, and that is certainly owing to his central role in the Opening to China which is generally regarded as having been a great success.
Ye,t sometimes I wonder. The first responsibility of a statesman, one supposes, is at least to maintain and even perhaps to enhance the relative power and influence of the state he serves. From this perspective, it is certainly possible to question what Kissinger actually accomplished.
It is true that from the moment of the Communist takeover of China in 1948 until Nixon's meeting with Mao in 1972, China was considered by the United States to be a dangerous enemy. That feeling, of course, only reached a fever pitch after China intervened in the Korean War in 1952 and hurled advancing U.S. troops back from the Yalu River and out of most of North Korea. But, in actuality, China of that time was poverty stricken, poorly armed, and completely unable to challenge the United States in any significant way.
Indeed, ten years later when I participated in the first U.S. trade mission to China in 1982 and visited Beijing for the first time, I was shocked at how poor the country still was. I remember walking the streets that were empty of virtually all vehicles except bicycles and wondering how we Americans could ever have thought of China as a threat.
Now, fast forward to last week's Shangri-la Security Conference in Singapore. As I noted yesterday, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates strongly reaffirmed Washington's commitment to maintaining its commitments and even to enhancing its military presence in Asia at the conference. But this was one of those cases where to have to explicitly make that kind of statement was itself an admission of declining influence. Gates spoke as he did because senior Asian leaders like Singapore founding father Lee Kuan Yew have been expressing concern that America might not be sticking around to counteract the rapidly expanding influence of -- guess who -- China. Indeed, they fear that because of increasing economic weakness, the United States might not be able to stick around much longer as the prime guarantor of Asian stability.
It was the Opening that changed things in a way that has reduced America's relative power and influence while enhancing China's. Or, perhaps I should say not that it was the Opening, per se, but the way the Opening was eventually structured that changed things in this way. In a sense the opening was as much or more of the United States as of China. The U.S. market was opened to China's inexpensive, consumer-oriented exports while China's production centers were opened to off-shored U.S. factories, technologies, and jobs.
The result has been steady rapid growth of the Chinese economy and stagnation of the U.S. economy along with a dramatic and on-going shift in the global balance of power away from the United States. Surely this was not what Kissinger intended when he set out for his first meetings in Beijing. So was the Opening a success or not? Well to paraphrase Zhou En Lai's comment when asked how he felt about the French Revolution, "it's just too early to tell."
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This post was rather unfair. It is eternally fashionable to deflate the reputations of "great men," but it oftentimes leads to some predictable errors. The most common of these is to err by overstating their influence. The Metternich parallel is apt; for nearly a hundred years historians blamed him for a whole host of things he had no control over (indeed, in his correspondence Metternich lamented his lack of domestic influence).
As you acknowledge in your comment, Henry Kissinger cannot be held responsible for all of those subsequent developments that have since changed the Sino-American dynamic. Kissinger did not hold a gun to the heads of American politicians and force them to underinvest in American education or stop them from pursuing any kind of coherent economic policy. He was the head of the state department for a period nearly forty years ago. His purview in that capacity was limited. In the context of Cold War politics, and even regarding Sino-American trade relations trade in the last twenty years, Kissinger's opening was beneficial for American interests. Trade with China has made us substantially wealthier in material terms.
Cracks have begun to show in America's economic soundness, but those cracks are not a result of Chinese successes but of American failures. Trade is not a zero sum game; growing Chinese wealth does not inherently result in American penury. The villains in that equation are closer to home, as you've often written.
In the event that American decline continues alongside Chinese growth, it still would be incorrect to call Kissinger's opening an error. To do so could be compared to blaming the builders after a house is burned down by arsonists. These kind of assessments will perhaps predominate for a time, but as Kissinger rehabilitated Metternich's reputation so surely will some young mind rehabilitate Kissinger's. Though it can take decades, genuinely effective statesmen end up with the reputation they deserve.
@PECHORIN: Excellent!!!!
China, which is to say Mao, sought to revive relations with the United States as a means of avoiding a potentially fatal confrontation with the Soviet Union and its massive nuclear arsenal. Mao had no thought of doing any of the things China has done since 1978, and while some other Chinese did they did not say so aloud while Mao was alive.
I sympathize with some of Prestowitz's sentiments, expressed on this blog from time to time, and often agree with the arguments he makes. However, he is too apt to regard the question of China with a kind of hopeless pessimism. The pessimism I understand, even if I don't always share it. It's the hopelessness I regard as unworthy.
The suggestion that rapprochement with China led to America's decline is risible, as PECHORIN points out. But his pointing to our neglect of education and short-sighted economic policies as alternative causes for our decline in the period since opening relations with China raises a thought.
Perhaps winning two world wars and gaining ground in the Cold War brought a sense of security and quiescence and America grew soft. Weary of the fight and eager to enjoy the good things in life we relaxed. (And why not - we deserve it.)
Meanwhile a stabilized China rediscovered the advantages of industry and trade and was only too happy to toil and sweat to provide America with those good things at seductively affordable prices. And the focus of their policies and solidarity of their people helped them achieve remarkable economic growth. (Of course there have been various ways that focus and solidarity have been effected and I'm glad I didn't experience all of them.)
But China is not tired yet. The idea that life doesn't have to be starvation and misery is new to so many of them. The newly discovered pleasures of even small material reward along with the fresh memory of extreme poverty and suffering keeps them working hard. They don't need to relax; that's too much like the torpidity of destitution.
China's strength frightens us. We don't really know them - how can we trust them? Don't they jail people who leak government secrets to the press? Don't they torture perceived enemies in secret jails? Don't they mistreat their ethnic minorities, taking control of their lands? Don't they use slave labor? A country with a history of doing all that must be a threat.
So how do we get our power back? How do we get our work ethic back? Do we incite fear of China's growing economic strength? Should we denounce the instigation of a cordial relationship?
Of all the things one might choose to criticize Kissinger for, making friends with China is a curious choice.
Henry Kissinger cannot be held responsible for all of those subsequent developments that have since changed the Sino-American dynamic. Kissinger did not hold a gun to the heads of American politicians and force them to underinvest sázkové kanceláre in American education or stop them from pursuing any kind of coherent economic policy. He was the head of the state department for a period nearly forty years ago. His purview in that capacity was limited. In the context of Cold War politics, and even regarding Sino-American trade relations trade in the last twenty years.
Clyde Prestowitz is the president of the Economic Strategy Institute and writes on the global economy for FP.
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