Posted By Clyde Prestowitz Share

In the wake of my recent blog post on the new Oakland Bay Bridge being made in China, a lively debate has erupted. I found the best comments to be those of Vikram Dalal of Iowa State University. I am passing them along here.

By Vikram Dalal
Professor of electrical and computer engineering, Iowa State University

The real problems are:

1. The destruction of American industrial infrastructure. As former Intel chief Andy Grove says, it is absolutely critical that we continue to manufacture "commodity" industrial items, like bridges and rivets and bearings and computer chips and tires and steel and aluminum and commodity chemicals. Once we lose that, we lose the workforce. It takes many, many years to build up an industrial workforce, but only 10 years to destroy it. When younger people see jobs being lost in manufacturing, they turn away from it, with the result that the workforce dies off. That is exactly what is happening today -- industries cannot find enough well-trained young people.

2. The second problem is that as the industrial workforce (the people who make things that we can export) is reduced and laid off, they (and their children) go into "service" businesses, particularly health care. But health care is a giant monopoly -- the doctors have an iron grip on it. There is no competition there. What it means is that the only way more jobs are created in "meaningful" health care -- jobs like technologist or lab tech (as opposed to those in bedpan health care) -- is by doctors prescribing more MRIs, CAT scans, PET scans, and so on. That increases medical costs, especially because Medicare requires no second opinion. You walk in and before you know it, the doctor has prescribed 10 tests, because no one is checking; and he, and the hospital, make more money from more tests. So increasing health-care employment is not a winning strategy from a national economic viewpoint.

3. So now we have all these unemployed factory workers -- at least 4 million of them, thanks to China (8 million factory jobs have gone to China). What that means is that the income tax returns to states have dropped, exasperated by the collapse of the housing bubble. So the states cut back on the most productive government activity, education and community colleges and state universities. What that in turn means is that more R&D gets done in China, and more industries move there, because that is where the workers will be. The United States is going into a death spiral. I have the attendance record of the recent Materials Research Society conference in San Francisco. It is probably 60 to 70 percent Chinese. Americans were rather scarce. Most of these Chinese students are going back. What does it tell you? China is going all-out to capture the technology leadership. The country is offering terrific opportunities to the best Chinese students to go back, and the students are taking them up. We spend money to educate them, and they go back to China.

4. The Chinese are now not only demanding that factories move there in high-tech industries (for instance, Evergreen Solar, which closed down a plant in Massachusetts that was making solar cells and relocated to China), but that R&D also move there. I know this firsthand because I work with a company in Massachusetts that has developed great solar cell technology but cannot get capital here to expand. The Chinese offered us $30+ million to move to China, but we had to move the R&D there too, including us. We told them to go to hell.

5. I just came back from the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers solar cell conference, an annual meeting that brings in lots of venture capitalists and industrialists. They all said the same thing: It's impossible to raise capital in the United States, and you cannot compete against China because land is free, water is free, electricity is sold far below production cost, there are no environmental restrictions, capital is freely available, and they can (and do) copy anyone's technology. How is this free trade? Subsidies have to be factored in when calculating cost. And if RMB were freely convertible, wouldn't the cost of doing business in China be 30 to 40 percent higher?

6. The only way to get out of this spiral is to recognize that to stay competitive, we must educate, we must retain and rebuild our industrial infrastructure, we must lead in R&D, because nothing less than our economic and national security well-being is at stake. Once the industrial infrastructure is gone, and with it the R&D infrastructure, we are back to being an agrarian country. I am not exaggerating. Guess who has this figured out? Hedge funds. They are buying up farmland in Iowa. Over the last five or so years, the price of Iowa farmland has tripled to $11,000 to $12,000 per acre, from about $4,000. Many of my farm friends are worth millions on their land.

7. Turning to national security, once manufacturing goes to China, how do we make F-35 fighter jets? How do we make nuclear subs? How do we make tanks? Should we buy those also from China?

Economists do not take into account the dynamic nature of this unfair trade relationship or the downside multiplier effects which lead to a spiraling collapse. They do not understand the problem of how long it takes to build an infrastructure. We are on our way to becoming like Britain. Does anyone buy anything made in Britain (except pharmaceuticals, where they still have a presence)? Would Britain survive without the huge influx of Arab money which props up spending and housing in London?

STR/AFP/Getty Images

 

DDSNAIK

4:13 AM ET

July 6, 2011

#2 ? Really ?

For a seemingly reasonable and articulate man - one who regurgitates much, but I digress - Mr. Dalal has taken a very lopsided view of healthcare costs issues.

Assuming his premise is true about doctors having a monopoly on health care, which is not exactly accurate, whom does he suggest should be in charge ? Does he suggest that insurance companies play a bigger role than they the one they have already hijacked ? Perhaps a random sampling of people with no specific scientific or medical training should be empowered to make medical decisions for everyone ?

As for the more condemning accusations of doctor-prescribed tests being the etiology of hyper costs, perhaps he's simply not aware of the the litigious nature in which health care providers find themselves or of the thoroughness that each individual patient expects from their treating provider (even if they don't want to pay for it) ? Not that the profit motive isn't a factor, but his conclusions in this regard lack any perspective or nuance.

r

 

VR

10:42 AM ET

July 6, 2011

BRAVO

really great rebuttal.

 

DDSNAIK

8:36 PM ET

July 6, 2011

Thanks

... and sorry about the grammatical errors

 

DEEJAY

12:31 PM ET

July 10, 2011

America

Unemployment has not returned to Great Depression levels but at 9.1% of the workforce it is still at levels that will have nerves jangling in the White House. The last president to be re-elected with unemployment above 7.2% was Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

The US is a country with serious problems. Getting on for one in six depend on government food stamps to ensure they have enough to eat. The budget, which was in surplus little more than a decade ago, now has a deficit of Greek-style proportions. MMORPG There is policy paralysis in Washington.

The assumption is that the problems can be easily solved because the US is the biggest economy on the planet, the only country with global military reach, the lucky possessor of the world's reserve currency, and a nation with a proud record of re-inventing itself once in every generation or so.

All this is true and more. US universities are superb, attracting the best brains from around the world. MMORPG Games It is a country that pushes the frontiers of technology. So, it may be that the US is about to emerge stronger than ever from the long nightmare of the sub-prime mortgage crisis. The strong financial position of American companies could unleash a wave of new investment over the next couple of years.

 

ALEXBC

4:22 AM ET

July 6, 2011

"you cannot compete against

"you cannot compete against China because land is free, water is free, electricity is sold far below production cost, there are no environmental restrictions, capital is freely available, and they can (and do) copy anyone's technology."

This statement paints a very incomplete picture of China's investment climate. Mainly, it attempts to disguise the deep flaws in said climate as foil-proof advantages. If, on the one hand, the US is indeed in a "death spiral" because of some industrial layoffs (even as its overall industrial production is at an all-time high), then China's cavalier approach to investment is something even worse.

1. "land is free" - it is for SOEs and other well-connected enterprises who are riding the investment boom. It certainly is not for smaller enterprises, or for individual citizens who have long since been priced out of the land market.

2. "water is free" - yes, China treats water as a disposable good, which is baffling considering that it has a relative paucity of water, resulting in projects such as the recent attempt to divert water from the southwest toward Beijing: the equivalent of trying to siphon off the Mississippi to quench the thirst of NYC. Even perennial China bull Jim Rogers has fretted over China's water policy as a potential destructor of its growth trajectory.

3. "electricity is sold far below production cost" - it is; the result has been woeful energy efficiency that makes China the world leader in energy consumption even as its output is 1/3rd of the US. It is also by far the leader in CO2 emissions and pollution of its territory. Which leads to...

4. "there are no environmental restrictions" - this seems like a "good" thing in the view of this article, but environmental damage does long-lasting damage to an economy. It did so to the USSR, Japan, and even the US in the years leading up to the Great Depression. Failure to account for how such damage lowers both agricultural and industrial production over the long run then results in massive overstatement of GDP:

http://mpettis.com/2011/06/small-companies-feel-the-pain-in-china-2/

5. "capital is freely available" - overly cheap nature of capital is a classic trait of an investment bubble. I could cite Patrick Chovanec, Michael Pettis, or Edward Chancellor on how artificially low interest rates have the result of taking too much wealth away from households, giving it to the state, and fueling misallocated investment, but instead I'll just quote Clyde himself here, who was righter than he knew when he said "cheap is expensive."

6. "they can (and do) copy anyone's technology" - how is this a positive trait for developing a technologically innovative society? I think you overestimate what this theft has accomplished, too. For example, the theft of HSR tech from France and Japan has resulted in costly, debt-inducing HSR corridors being built in a country with a very low value of labor, low per capita income, and a geographical character that is not conducive to what HSR should provide: namely, the saving of time in transporting high-value labor across a small distance of travel (as is the case in France, Germany, Spain, and Japan).

The comparison of the US to Britain is beyond cliché. Britain was always a small country that punched way above its weight and which, even during the peak of its power, never truly dominated industry. The quip about no one buying anything made in Britain stems from the naive notion that, if you can't find something made in [x country] it at Wal-Mart or any other big box store, then that country does not make anything.

 

SITRA.ACHRA

11:27 AM ET

July 6, 2011

Fantastic !

Good one !

 

SCOTT MONJE

3:24 PM ET

July 6, 2011

Missed the point

I think you have completely missed the point. He's not saying this is an effective long-term development strategy. He's saying that this approach helps China induce investors to make their investments there instead of in the United States. If the Chinese strategy is as described and even if it is counterproductive in the long run, then the question still remains as to whether it undermines the U.S. economy in the short to medium term.

 

SCOTT MONJE

3:30 PM ET

July 6, 2011

Vulnerable supply chain

Another complication is rarely taken into account by economists. They tend to focus on the efficiency of moving production to the low-cost producer, but that makes the United States dependent on a long and vulnerable supply chain. What happens if, say, a war breaks out in East Asia--even if we somehow manage to stay out of it ourselves?

 

LAZLO JAMF

4:23 PM ET

July 6, 2011

Yup, this is keeping the Cassandras' up at night.

American economic might of the last century-and-a-quarter relied on being protected by two oceans, keeping industry from being flattened every 20 years by a Johnny-Make-War-Lately. People can quibble about this sector or that sector and captial accumulation: Does American board rooms have their collective opposable thumbs up their pampered patoot? You betcha! [*wink].--The excuse: But we've always been told cost-efficiency is our co-pilot.--We live under a cabal who divinates from the entrails of their spreadsheets. That is not Management in the greater sense of the word.

 

ARTURBARRERA

5:21 PM ET

July 6, 2011

This is surprising!

I do think that this is too much important.

Read this series of six chapters: http://goo.gl/7CsZw

 

MRMONDAY

12:11 AM ET

July 19, 2011

A Time for Bipartisanship

The difficulty America has is accentuated by the fact that Congress and the Senate make it difficult to pass radical reform, so the President's policies become stuck in the legislature. We won't see country wide health insurance for the working poor so long as there is a ideological division between the major parties. Now, more than ever, it is time for bipartisanship. Let's put aside party politics and fix this country as Americans.

 

MARIA RUBIK

7:11 PM ET

August 1, 2011

The US is a country with

The US is a country with serious problems. Getting on for one in six depend on government food stamps to ensure they have enough to eat. The budget, which was Stávkové kancelárie in surplus little more than a decade ago, now has a deficit of Greek-style proportions. MMORPG There is policy paralysis in Washington.The assumption is that the problems can be easily solved because the US is the biggest economy on the planet, the only country with global military reach, the lucky possessor of the world's reserve currency, and a nation with a proud record of re-inventing itself once in every generation or so.

 

Clyde Prestowitz is the president of the Economic Strategy Institute and writes on the global economy for FP.

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