Wednesday, August 17, 2011 - 2:50 PM
Let me start today with a correction. In yesterday's post, I mentioned a new report on manufacturing in America. It was done by Booz & Company not, as I reported, by Booz Allen & Hamilton.
But speaking of manufacturing in America and also of creating jobs and especially green jobs in America, did you see in yesterday's Wall Street Journal that Evergreen Solar has filed for bankruptcy protection, saying that it could not compete with Chinese rivals without a reorganization. It will close production facilities in Midland, Michigan and lay off 80 workers. You may recall that only a few years ago Evergreen was a high flying green start-up venture whose stock price hit $108 in January, 2008. It closed on the NASDAQ yesterday at 16 cents.
Part of the problem has been that Evergreen's advantage in polysilicon technology has diminished as the cost of this material has recently plummeted. But Evergreen and other U.S.-based manufacturers like Solyndra (that received a Federal government loan guarantee of $535 million in 2009), First Solar, and SunPower have also found it increasingly difficult to compete in the face of the large subsidies the Chinese government is providing both directly and indirectly to its manufacturers.
On the one hand, China is strongly encouraging solar power use by aggressive policies to have the electric companies buy solar power into their grid systems. On the other hand, as Jeffrey Pichel of Jeffries and Company told the Journal, the Chinese government is also providing low cost utilities, free land, and subsidized capital to its manufacturers. In addition, of course, it is also intervening daily in global currency markets to buy dollars and to thereby keep its yuan undervalued by 20-30 percent versus the U.S. dollar. All of this has led to cutbacks in U.S. based production and to its transfer to off-shore locations in China, Malaysia, the Philippines, and other locations where these subsidies are matched in one way or another.
Here is a concrete example that should lead to some tough questions for President Obama in the course of his current bus tour of the mid-west. Over the past two days, he has been telling audiences in Minnesota and Michigan that he aims to create jobs by, among other things, concluding a free trade agreement with South Korea. He has been saying this despite the fact that the International Trade Commission has estimated that such an agreement would actually increase the U.S. trade deficit which would imply a loss of jobs rather than a gain from the deal.
Now Obama himself has been a strong proponent of green jobs and green start-ups and the Obama administration has, as noted above, provided some assistance to some of these U.S. ventures. So the question, is how can the President be in Michigan and talk about doing a questionable free trade deal with Korea while avoiding any comment on responding to the industrial policies of China that have just led to the loss of 80 jobs in Michigan?
Indeed, this is the crux of the jobs issue. Because they don't deal with currency and financial subsidy questions, free trade agreements almost never lead to an increase in U.S. jobs. If the President and his Republican opponents sincerely want to create jobs, they will have to find a way (given that further stimulus, tax cuts, and interest rate cuts are unlikely) to reduce the trade deficit. And to do that they will have to find a way to respond to the strategic industrial policies of America's economic partners.
So here's the test. Are candidates proposing more free trade agreements or more policies aimed at matching or countering the currency interventions and financial investment incentives of the export led economies of Asia and Europe? The former are unlikely to produce jobs. The latter may.
The argument against free trade with nations that "unfairly" subsidize their industries is a cogent one.
Does "countering the currency interventions and financial investment incentives of the export led economies of Asia and Europe" equate to trade restrictions or does it aim to level the playing field while not affecting trade?
If it is trade restrictions, would it precipitate a global recession/depression of the 1920 kind?
Would (1) reducing regulatory and social welfare (Obamacare) costs/burdens on industry, (2) encouraging energy exploration (gas, oil, and renewable sources if economically viable) (3) reducing deficits in the near term, and (4) the debt in the long term, spur economic activity?
Except for (1), these are long term fixes. Would "help being on the way" guarantees be sufficient to turn the tide?
These are two fundamentals that free trade agreements modify for the US. FTAs tend to outsource US production because of a large US population and much stronger consumer spending power of an American citizen. Increased US consumerism then results through lower product prices because of the average American's inability to save money due to seeking an unaffordable standard of living.
On the topic of US middle class wage stagnation over the past 40 years...I haven't seen enough info on how the increased labor supply has affected US wages. There are two major events that have affected labor supply: one is the US feminism or "Mary Kay" movement that started opening up the labor market to millions of women. The second expansion of the labor pool involves FTAs, which were used as a political tool to draw countries away from the Soviet Union. This expanded foreign labor pool has had a direct effect on US job culture. Less unskilled or low skilled US jobs is one factor of the boom in young Americans seeking college degrees for jobs. This has diluted their labor pool and now you see many college grads without jobs...or competing against one another for unskilled jobs.
So what's my take on this? The foreign labor pool must be reduced. US industrial policy, sensible trade agreements, and ways of maintaining competitive advantage such as limiting technology transfer outside the US are places to start. This creates demand for products that are no longer being imported (or competitively imported) that the US will have to make itself. Since these products are being made in the US now, prices will go up. Rampant consumerism will partially decline along with the corresponding "standard of living". In exchange for this living adjustment, we'd have more US jobs. If this creates enough US jobs, we'll have higher wages from increased labor demand and decreased available labor supply.
Free trade s great when everybody is playing by the same rules, but nobody really practices free trade. Every country protects certain industries such as American farm subsidies. Politically, free trade is hard to implement its hard to convince workers that it is OK to see present jobs move abroad with the promise that America will gain more jobs in industries in which it has a comparative advantage in the future. A country such as China who's political legitimacy is based on the tacit agreement of economic growth and jobs in exchange for a hold on political reform. China has every incentive to use beggar thy neighbor policies that might be short sighted, but keeps people off the streets. As long as countries can use policies to bolster their economy even at the expense of others they will do it. The US seems to be the only country that still pushes for free trade even though the rest of the world has no intention of playing by the rules. Its like in baseball when everyone was using steroids. The players who didn't use were left behind. Yes it was cheating but you have to do what you have to do to get ahead.
The whole POINT of "GREEN" is "saving the planet", not "jobs" in any particular location.
If "save the planet" technology comes from China at as low cost for international consumers as possible, that is the best news possible for "saving the planet".
Saving the planet will destroy the economy
Lawson will be in Sydney in six weeks to expound his views at a public debate on the proposition: "We need a carbon tax to help stop global warming."
The combatants themselves should raise temperatures. The former British chancellor of the exchequer and energy secretary will lead a negative team comprising former Keating government minister Gary Johns and University of Adelaide geologist and author of the sceptic's bible Heaven and Earth, Ian Plimer.
The affirmative will be put by two former opposition leaders, John Hewson and Mark Latham, backed by University of NSW climatologist Benjamin McNeil.
Lawson says it is scientifically established that increased carbon dioxide emissions will warm the planet, but adds, "it is uncertain how great any such warming would be and how much harm, if any, it would do". He urges governments "to consider the damaging economic impact of blindly following the climate change agenda".
best regards: code reduction 3 suisses
For the record, the article seems very misleading.
Here are the actual estimated effects of the Korea FTA, according to the USITC. They seem to indicate a net *reduction* in trade deficit.
• U.S. GDP would likely increase by $10.1–11.9 billion as a result of tariff and tariff-rate quota (TRQ) provisions related to goods market access.
• Merchandise exports to Korea would likely increase by an estimated $9.7–10.9 billion as a result of tariff and TRQ provisions.
• Merchandise imports from Korea would likely increase by an estimated $6.4–6.9 billion as a result of tariff and TRQ provisions.
• U.S. services exports would likely increase as a result of the FTA, given the increase in levels of market access, national treatment, and regulatory
transparency that would be afforded by the FTA in excess of the current General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) regime.
• Aggregate U.S. output and employment changes would likely be negligible, primarily because of the size of the U.S. economy relative to that of the Korean economy.
For the full text, visit http://www.usitc.gov/publications/docs/pubs/2104F/pub3949.pdf
As you have alluded to in other articles part of the problem we face as a country is that while Chinese subsidies of their corporations grows we are cutting the jobs at the US Department of Commerce that are focused both on promoting US exports and on keeping check on competitors such as China that are breaking trade agreements and international trade rules. To protect American jobs we need the professional diplomats that are stationed in places like China and are trying to protect US business (job) interests. But instead of strengthening these efforts we are instead cutting these positions, closing trade offices, and giving up.
Congress and the President need to reverse this insanity.
Evergreen Solar face bankrupcy?
who one believe that Evergreen Solar -face bankrupcy previous years ago
. now they face it because can not compete with china (santafedehumidifier), (soleusdehumidifier, rubbermaidtrashcans), one of the cause is the goverment of china give subsidy to its company to face other competitor in others country. Chinese government is also providing low cost utilities, free land, and subsidized capital to its manufacturers.(rubbermaidtrashcans, simplehumantrashcan), beside that USA now face economy crisis from 2008. so it is hard when USA give sbsidy to its company simplehumantrashcan)
nurserychairs)
Booz & Company report - where to find it
Clyde, thanks for your mention of the Booz & Company report, which is called Manufacturing's Wake-up Call - by Arvind Kaushal, Tom Mayor, and Patricia Riedl. For those who are interested in seeing it, we've just posted it at the website of our magazine strategy+business:
It's at: http://www.strategy-business.com/article/11306.
We also have an interview with you (Clyde) up on the same site, called The Case for Intelligent Industrial Policy:
http://www.strategy-business.com/article/11306
Both links require free registration.
With much regard, Art
Jobs or free trade agreements?
Nice job so far.
Thanks- droid accessories
A country such as China who's political legitimacy is based on the tacit agreement of economic growth and jobs in exchange for a hold on political reform. China has every incentive to use beggar thy home_renovations neighbor policies that might be short sighted, but keeps people off the streets.
Clyde Prestowitz is the president of the Economic Strategy Institute and writes on the global economy for FP.
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