Posted By Clyde Prestowitz Share

President Barack Obama ought to call Defense Secretary Leon Panetta immediately and tell him to start talking like he's living in the 21st century -- rather than the 1950s of his youth.

In Tokyo yesterday, Panetta announced that the United States is going to strengthen the U.S. military presence in Asia. Although he didn't say whether Washington would add to the six aircraft carriers it already maintains in the Pacific or increase the number of troops permanently stationed in the region, he emphasized that the Pentagon would be increasing the number of its training exercises in Asia. This would be as part of what defense officials describe as a "rebalancing" of U.S. interests as the United States refocuses more of its attention on the Pacific while winding down the war in Iraq and beginning to withdraw troops from Afghanistan.

So I guess there will be no "peace dividend" from the winding down of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. We'll just shift what we were going to spend there to the Pacific.  According to Panetta, the objective is to expand U.S. influence in the area. This comes in the wake of Secretary of State Clinton's recent statements about America being "back" during her own recent swing through Asia.

But wait a minute, I never heard that we had left. I mean with six of our twelve carriers stationed in the Pacific and with close to the 100,000 troops that we have had in the Asia-Pacific region for the past forty years still stationed there, how can anyone think that we need to be "back" or that we lack influence, at least of the military variety?

Is there a threat to the United States here? Of course, Panetta added to the growing volume of commentary about China's military modernization and "troubling lack of transparency." But does anyone believe that putting more U.S. forces or the same number of forces more frequently in Asia is going to persuade China that it should halt its modernization? And anyhow, what threat is posed by China's military modernization? Yesterday's Financial Times reports foreign military advisers who have participated in exchanges with the PLA as saying that " they could never do what we are used to doing."

But even if they could, so what? No one is arguing that China is preparing to attack the United States. None of America's oil comes from the Asia-Pacific region and China is not threatening to stop selling its products into the U.S market. Washington does not seem to think that China should be in any way concerned about the presence of advanced U.S. military capabilities in its back yard, so why should Washington be concerned about China deploying similar capabilities in the same place?

Maybe some U.S. allies have concerns about how to deal with China on some issues of territorial conflict, but allies like Japan and South Korea are very big boys and quite capable of contributing a lot more to their own defense than they presently do. Assuming more responsibility in the region simply allows them to continue free riding on the U.S. security commitment while only further irritating China and spurring it to greater modernization. Moreover, deeper entanglement in Asia doesn't seem like a smart way to react to the commitment fatigue that Americans have felt toward Iraq and Afghanistan, especially at a moment when U.S. police forces are being reduced, classrooms shut, and essential infrastructure investment neglected because of rising debt and budget deficits.

In fact, the reason for the plans for an increased military presence have nothing to do with any military threat emanating from China or anywhere else in Asia. The use of the terms "increase U.S. influence in the region" is a tipoff. It's true that U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific area has fallen dramatically over the past decade. But that is not for lack of troops or aircraft carriers in the region. It is because of the erosion of U.S. economic competitiveness. America makes little that Asians want to buy and is now also buying relatively less of what Asians make as well as providing less of the cutting edge technology they are focused on obtaining.

What Panetta, Clinton, and the White House are trying to do is to use military power (the only area in which the United States remains unquestionably competitive) to compensate for rapidly declining economic power.

It won't work. Japan's pre war Finance Minister Korekiyo Takahashi was correct when he long ago emphasized that "the consequences of an economic defeat are far more difficult to reverse than those of a military defeat." America's asian allies and friends want the United States to balance their growing economic reliance on China with U.S. military power. But military power will not for long offset economic power. Indeed, perversely, the effort to use U.S. military power to balance China's economic power will only serve more rapidly to erode U.S. economic power which ultimately is the only power that counts.

Rather than promising to enhance the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, Panetta ought to be talking about reducing it and investing the savings in making America economically competitive. America's new slogan should be: "make wealth not war."

SHIGEKI MIYAJIMA/AFP/Getty Images

 

FLOATINGPOINT

3:23 AM ET

October 28, 2011

So true...

I suspect some US "leaders" actually want Asian territorial disputes turn into wars. And "hopefully" US may benefit from them. It's a very dangerous idea. I don't really see how US can benefit from Asian wars.

 

HURRICANEWARNING

7:47 AM ET

October 28, 2011

uh... Hey, Prestowitz: He's

uh... Hey, Prestowitz: He's the secretary of defense; his job has nothing to do with making economic moves in Asia and everything to do with keeping a military upper hand in Asia. Why is this an article? I want my SECDEF to be nice and paranoid about other nations military capabilities, that's how it should be.

 

ANON45

12:36 PM ET

October 28, 2011

Agreed

This is a non article, It isn't Panetta's job to think of economics, and it would be an utter catastrophe to make the SECDEF think of economics outside of how to best use the military's budget on military matters.

 

VICTORPANAK

6:11 PM ET

October 29, 2011

Prestowitz isn't arguing

Prestowitz isn't arguing against the fact that the secretary of defense should be saying this. He's arguing against the idea that any representative of the US should be saying this at all. It shouldn't be US policy to increase military presence in Asia.

The USA is a military state and has been since WW2. Military, in that it's economy relies heavily on the research, production, and consumption of weapons. Because of this, it is in the interest of those who reap the profits of these businesses to maintain military presence in as many areas as possible. This club of cigar-smoking millionaires have a pretty strong hold in government with guys like our favorite: Dick Cheney. Because of these assholes, we wreak havoc abroad, destroy the American image, send American youths to die, and skyrocket our debt. It's disgusting. I don't understand whether no one sees this, or no one acts on it? Maybe no one wants to accuse the US of being a military state when it was founded on the principles of freedom and peace but the US needs some fundamental wide-ranging change. Not talking Obama change either, that stuff is weak.

The amount of investment and government budget that is poured into the US military complex is staggering. If all this investment were re-routed to other parts of government spending/parts of the economy, the US would DOMINATE the world economy. The US economic capabilities given its huge population, area, resources, access to technology are a recipe for the most powerful country one could have on this planet. It is the richest piece of property on earth.

WW2 kickstarted the US military complex. The Cold War kept it going for the second half of the century. With the end of the Cold War, the lack of real military enemies has led the US into a series of dumb wars (War in Iraq, War in Afghanistan) waged purportedly to spread democracy or stabilize a region. Bullshit. These regions have become far from stable and the US presence in the Middle East is a big reason. (The Arab Spring was an interesting turn though). What was really needed at the end of the Cold War was a strong president to lead a coordinated effort at redirecting all the investment in the military to a different sector of the economy. May be too late now...

 

ARVAY

9:17 AM ET

October 28, 2011

Panetta

. . is an all-purpose, empty suit hack available for any and all jobs that require the ability to read memos prepared by the staff and to "speak for the building."

We will pay for his aircraft carriers with money borrowed from China?

 

PHIPHER

9:41 AM ET

October 28, 2011

Thanks Adela01

we are those allies..

 

JOHNBOY4546

10:48 AM ET

October 28, 2011

Well, you are dealing with an old saying that never gets old....

If all you have is a hammer then every problem looks like a nail.

All the USA has left is its military might, so every problem looks like it can be solved by going BANG! on it.

 

HURRICANEWARNING

6:13 PM ET

October 28, 2011

People are acting like we are

People are acting like we are already gone. Just because you wish it were so does not make it so. By nearly every measure, the USA is still by far the worlds leading economy, diplomatic force, consumption engine, humanitarian, destination for higher education, entertainment source, not to mention military super-power. And if you think that we will ever truly fade away within the next 50 years (barring some MAJOR catastrophe); then you are dreaming. If you are an American: grow up. If you are from somewhere else: Read less propaganda (i.e. FP's "Decline Watch")

 

XTIANGODLOKI

2:59 PM ET

October 28, 2011

Guns and Butter

Let's be honest here, part of Panetta's job is to speak out on behalf of the defense industry. After all, tax revenues are finite. If you invest more in butter to boost the infrastructure and domestic economy, it means less money to invest in weapons and military ventures. The US military is already far ahead of China by decades. Its real competitor isn't even China but the domestic institutions which desire to use the tax revenues to fund other more worthwhile projects.

For the most part I think we the world have already move beyond the age of military conquests. It's far easier to influence other nations via economic policies. The only reason why I think the US is taking a hardline on military rather than say trade policy is because politicians have been bought off by defense lobbyists.

 

OSBEP

3:39 PM ET

October 28, 2011

A Delicate Balance

I agree with some of the commenters who've mentioned that Panetta, as the SECDEF, does not need to balance economic concerns with his mission of pure defense. In defense of the article, however, the first sentence does read that Obama needs to direct him to change his rhetoric.

I disagree with the article for other reasons.

First and foremost: I think Mr. Prestowitz may be inferring too much from Panetta's comments. To me, a rebalancing could easily mean the use of existing assets w/o the surplus wartime budget currently used in the Middle East. It's important to remember that actual military occupations are far more expensive than the redistribution of existing forces into a (relatively) peaceful region like the Pacific. An increased military presence there will could come at the expense of fewer assets in other places across the globe and will not warrant hazard pay, munitions etc all the costs that come with actualy military war-time campaigns. In summary: a rebalancing could be effected without an increase in costs and could very well happen with a decrease in military spending as we will be leaving actual conflicts to maintain a peacetime force.

Second, I believe that military protection can and will provide important benifits for the US in Asia that will include economic benifits. Any way you look at it, China is a burgeoning power that is exploring its newfound economic and military prowess. It's neighbors, some of whom have had existing territorial conflicts with it, are decidedly worried and - despite being the so called "big boys" - do not have the size or means to adequately defend themselves from even low level aggression by China as it expands its influence. By giving them the backing of our defense machine, we gain stability in the region in the form of a sphere of influence to hold China in check as well as all the increased economic ties that inevitably flow from mutual defense agreements.

Third, China is not the enemy and I think the odds are good that their growth will result in further prosperity for both of our countries. However, what happens if China's real estate bubble bursts? What if fomenting social tensions finally bubble to the surface and result in an overthrow of the current government? What if the numerous environmental issues in the country become to heavy a load for the economy to heft and it begins to weaken? A country's intentions can change as quickly as their circumstances. The practical, logical, and rational government existing in China now may not be the same one we face 10 or even 5 years from now. Rebalancing our military is not an act of war, but it is a nod to the unknown future and a sign that the US will be prepared for whatever comes.

Finally, I dont find the "commitment fatigue" argument to be valid. The US and it's people are undoubtedly tired of conflict and war. We're tired of losing soldiers in seemingly neverending and increasingly pointless campaigns. This same fatigue will not follow aircraft carriers to the peaceful Pacific region. We are not sending our fighting men to Asia to die in failed government building exercises. There is an ENORMOUS difference between sending soldiers to peaceful bases in friendly countries and sending them to ongoing conflicts and while people may be almost fatally exhausted by the latter, there is no problem with the former.

 

YANKEE

5:21 PM ET

October 28, 2011

Spoken like a real hippy...

Conveniently this article totally ignores the recent North Korean attacks on South Korea resulting in dozens of dead South Korean allies. Didn't we fight a war over Korea with CHINA?

This kind of thinking is exactly what builds confidence in Chinese and North Korean minds. Not that he cares what they are thinking about.

Please stop helping the enemy confuse us.

 

DELTA22

5:59 PM ET

October 28, 2011

I'm more inclined to think

I'm more inclined to think that we should build up our forces in the Pacific. The reason isn't oil or territorial disputes between China and its neighbors....rather it's Taiwan. A successful invasion of Taiwan by mainland China would end the self-determination the Taiwanese currently have, therefore we have a moral obligation to defend Taiwan. Given Taiwan's proximity to China, China has every advantage if we get into a shooting war with them, so unfortunately we have to make up for it with numbers.

 

MARTY MARTEL

7:21 PM ET

October 29, 2011

Clyde Prestowitz, the China apologist

When Clyde Prestowitz preaches U. S. to make wealth, not war in Asia, he really is trying to varnish China’s unabashed mercantilism.

Can U. S. really make wealth in Asia?

Does China really need U. S. investment at this point?

China was a pariah country in the world just like today’s North Korea until Nixon’s 1972 visit. All the West European and East Asian countries stayed away from China following the US lead until 1972 and embraced China after Nixon’s visit. While US would not give MFN status to Soviet Union (remember Jackson-Vanik amendment?) unless Russia shed Communism, it had no problem giving it to China’s Communist dictators with a capitalist mask. Trade with China expanded by leaps and bounds during 12 years of Republican rule beginning in 1981. After campaigning against butchers of Beijing in 1992 elections, even Bill Clinton became enthusiastic supporter of trade with China once he took lessons in foreign policy from Nixon in early 1993 during a special Whitehouse-arranged meeting.

Now China has US by the tail - US businesses are hooked to huge profits that cheap Chinese products generate for them as a walk through any Walmart, Home Depot, Sears and Macy’s filled with Chinese goods prove and US government is hooked to huge investments that China makes in US governmental securities from the sales of cheap Chinese products to US businesses.

Clyde Prestowitz is hallucinating if he thinks U. S. can make wealth in Asia, i.e. China.

Free trade with China has been an unmitigated disaster with China keep piling up ever higher trade surpluses with U. S. year in and year out as Mr. Prestowitz has to know.

No amount of peace offerings to Beijing is going to turn that around any time soon.

Ultimately U. S. would have to say ’enough is enough and no more’ and draw a proverbial line in the sand.

Ultimately U. S. would have to resort to old-fashioned trade protectionism to arrest this one way trade in China‘s favor.

One can only hope that it won’t be too late by then.

 

DEEJAY

10:20 PM ET

November 10, 2011

Obama

The Panetta’s visit to Japan is timely as the Obama administration aggressively continues to tilt its diplomatic weight towards the Asia-Pacific region after a decade of policies bogged down by counterterrorism and nation building in the Middle East and Central Asia. Japan is especially sensitive to Washington’s retrenchment from Asia as it watches an Welsh Metal increasingly assertive China looking to dictate the strategic course of the continent’s future.

 

THOMAS_CANON

9:28 PM ET

November 24, 2011

not war in Asia

Make wealth not war in Asia A successful invasion of Taiwan by mainland China would end the self-determination the Taiwanese currently have, therefore we have a moral obligation to defend Taiwan. Not only is this good training for their navy - a training ground for their xbox 360 dealsmerchant marine after naval service - but it increases good will among all who encounter their navy, and this could translate into more sales.

 

Clyde Prestowitz is the president of the Economic Strategy Institute and writes on the global economy for FP.

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